Just yesterday, millions of Israelis poured into polling stations for the third time this year, ready to cast their ballots once again for a new Knesset. Despite fears of coronavirus and the inevitable exhaustion of following 14 months of election season drama, voters turned out in record numbers, reaching turnout rates of 71%. So, this begs the question: is the third time really the charm?
It seems like every time Netanyahu doesn't turn out a government, the Knesset dissolves. This isn't to say that others aren't to blame, namely Kachol Lavan leader Benny Gantz and Yisrael Beyteinu leader Avigdor Leiberman, but it seems (to me) that the results of this election are going to boil down to two possibilities: a coalition with Bibi at its head (at least to start out with) or a fourth election this summer.
So let's look at these options:
"Success": Another Term for Bibi
Now, it sounds crazy, but Israel could go through 3 rounds of elections only to end up with the same Prime Minister it started with. But it could be the reality as Israelis start to give up on Gantz's ability to form a coalition. To avoid another election, it seems as though the easiest choice is to give the vote to Bibi and let him stick it out for another 4 years, at which point he may be charged with one of the three cases he was indicted for.
Doesn't seem so bad, huh? Well, that depends who you ask. Progressive voters in Israel see this election as a third chance to push the Knesset a little bit more left, and losing to Likud yet again would be a huge blow for Blue and White as well as the entire center-left bloc. It would also be a loss for Arab voters who are hoping for a government which may be more willing to cooperate with their party's needs. It would also leave an indicted Prime Minister in office, which many voters are uncomfortable with allowing to happen despite its legality in accordance with Israel's Basic Laws.
Last night, Bibi appears to have more seats in his party and in his bloc than Gantz, so this option is becoming more likely (though actual results have not been released yet). If Bibi can convince Leiberman to join his coalition, this option is truly on the table.
"Failure": Another Election
If Netanyahu fails to form a coalition, and Gantz does as well (seemingly likely by the exit polls' seat counts for center-left parties), Israel could be headed into a fourth election in another six months. Due to the Joint Arab List's increase in seats, it may not be possible to form a government, as their party growth means that there are less seats available with which to form a coalition.
To say that this is not an ideal situation for Israel would be a massive understatement. Through the last 14 months of election campaigning and voting time and time again, Israel has lacked a functioning government to run the country. Government programs are struggling to get funding and politicians in both the right- and center-left blocs are announcing dozens of different plans for the country in an attempt to gain more seats. For example, both Netanyahu and Gantz made claims that they would, if elected, annex the Jordan Valley, but without a government there is no way to see if this is an empty promise.
Whatever happens in the coming days and weeks, Israel is in for an interesting time, and it's possible that neither of these will happen. Whatever the case, Israel may need to take a long and hard look at the way their elections run and start to work toward stability together.